from the nytimes...

The troubles plaguing the housing market, which are at the heart of America’s financial crisis, are only multiplying as the recession deepens and a spiral of rising unemployment, lower wages and economic uncertainty gathers force.

Apple Tagline for the Future

New tagline for apple—b2b especially. Show something awesome that was previously associated with PC’s and then have the tagline: “Made on a Mac.” Capitals add some and maybe serifs would add some formality—make it more serious for professionals.

But then again—think of all people like me in the world who would love to put their company on macs (not really, but because of cost reasons—something apple would have to market to and address from a product standpoint.” Which from a business perspective at present does not make sense. Apple computers have to be bought from apple and apple only sells premium products.

New Market with a Splash

When a brand or business enters a new market they need to make a splash. I think there is no better example of this than the entry of Apple (now Apple Inc) into the mp3 player market.

That makes me think about Apple now. They then entered into the cell phone market.

What will the enter next?

But it is important to note how they entered each market. With a splash. Big innovation. Big splash.

this could change my life

I wonder

I wonder what it would be like to have no hair in my body...

Better Memory

When someone dies do we mourn for two reasons: we're not going to create new memories with that person and we're going to slowly forget existing memories of that person. And the sum is that they will slowly fade out of our consciousness.

I would do almost anything for a better memory.

Let me know if you have any tips!

The brand and trust

Great design I trust. I know the design team. I know they put out absolutely amazing products at margins lower than our competitors. There's no branding in their minds. We might be the only remaining fabric house like that. That is what I would miss from a product side. A brand I could trust for timeless luxury design.

Survey

You know, if my dad had sent out a survey I would have filled it out and had it back to him in 60 minutes. Because I love him and I love the company.

It's such a slap in the face that that is not mutual.

My Brands

They need to become champions of education in our field. CHAMPIONS.

The Moat

My company's brand is its moat. The authority of the brand as a purvey or taste is the moat. And that was ignored for a long time. Over a decade. I need to widen the moat.

Stocks I would like to buy

Stocks I would like to buy when the market drops down again...

-Google
-Proctor & Gamble
-Coke
-General Electric
-Goldman Sachs
-Apple (more) [even though I think they have a real issue on their hands. A haptic response on the touch screen was definitely the logical place to go. But now that RIM has done that it will be very difficult for apple to introduce that feature in such a way that Apple doesn't look like a "me too" type thing. It has to be new better or different--perhaps haptic response on a screen that feels more substantive than the blackberry's. It will be tough.
-RIM (smart phones are a fast growing category. even if RIM loses market share it will be growing. Just want to make sure it's cheap. This may not be a long term hold.
-L'Oreal (company dominates industry. having worked there it's easy to see why)
-United Technologies

and I need to keep thinking.


These are all stocks I could see myself owning for life. Except I'm disappointed that Goldman is even accepting FED money--I thought they were better than that.

I want to buy companies with strong brands and large and clear competitive advantages.

All the companies are the best at what they do, have profitable products, secure talent pipelines, work in industries that grow at or above the rate of any given population (and there are plenty of new populations around the world), and have put relevant infrastructures (intellectual, technological, physical, etc) in place to ensure continued success in those areas. All of the companies conduct themselves as if attracting and retaining the best people possible was a core value in the company.

They are long term holds. 5-100 years.

Media and the financial crisis

I wonder if the government has made an effort to suppress some of the media coverage of the financial crisis to help control it. If it has indeed moved to the point of becoming a crisis of confidence, then at this point a psychological and economic solution would be necessary.

The media is inspiring a lot of panic and mob benavior.

"Be scared when others of greedy and be greedy while others are scared.

kids and marriage...

I worry that my wife would change when we had kids. Such that it was no longer about us. I can see how our attention might be taken from each other and given to the kids it would ruin the marriage.

Yikes

"...With credit markets still frozen and stock markets around the world in a deep swoon, there is a growing consensus that the crisis is now so fast-moving and harmful to the global economy that it demands an unprecedented degree of worldwide coordination."

-New York Times, October 9, 2008

She does it again.

Math and Design, Human Race and the Internet

What are two things I find amazing?

One is this: count 1-10, count 0-100 in tens, count 0-100 in hundreds. Our mathematical system. I wonder a) how someone came up with it and b) if there is a mathematical system that is even better. Right now our numbers could all be displayed on a single axis. But what if all numbers were displayed on a three dimensional axis? Our entire basis for math would change. I mean there are x, y, z axis--but I'm thinking using that as the basis of the math we teach off the bat.

The other is the fact that mathematicians are doing a better and better job of quantifying the beauty and creation of design. I am just blown away by the fact that design has consistently been so ahead of mathematicians. 300 years ago mathematicians could explain any design. The celebrated design and art of that era is still beautiful today. And 300 years from now it will be the same. The celebrated artists of today will be celebrated again 300 years from now.

But that isn't too many more than a couple artists per century. What happened to all the others? And now in the digital age will that change? How will digital art or literature (photo blogs, written blogs, search terms, youube, yahoo personalls) be documented? We need to make it illegal to delete that stuff. We will have a nearly perfect history of the human race after the advent of the internet. The storefronts of the 1500's rotten away a long time ago. But what if we could preserve the internet of today 500 years from now.

What if

What if an anti-depressant medication malfunctioned on a couple people in a thousand? And of those two one became so depressed she committed suicide? It would be pretty easy for a drug company to pay PR people to spin that so the public heard it as "Joe Doe was taking anti depressants and killed himself." That has implied-cause effect relationship. Makes sense though---99.98% of people react one way...and that is get happier. And .02% react another way...which is to get sadder. Well what if 50% of those sadder ones (.01%) of the whole kill themselves?

Can't wait for tonight's debate!

Brilliant.

Trade-Only Website.

There is currently no online design center where people can browse fabrics (and other products) and be sent samples. I bet it would be really successful if someone could pull it off. It would have to be more than a portal though. It would have to be a master search engine. And have a shopping cart for samples that would send orders to the respective companies.

Existing account applications could work too. But ideally one application would admit people to all companies.

Internet and the Future

I don't think anyone realizes what a significant invention the internet was. Or even the computer for that matter. It's like the printing press in that it is a milestone for civilization on earth. It's fascinating to speculate what the next major milestone will be for humankind.

For the history books, we need to find out who invented the internet.

Amazing.

Here we go

I work in interior design. For a textile company that sells high-end decorative fabrics only to interior designers. Over the last 15 years the size of the industry has remained relatively flat. $1 Billion in fabric sales to designers. But the size of the luxury market has grown. So interior design is losing market share of the American consumer's wallet. Stores like Pier 1, Crate & Barrel, West Elm, etc. They all allow some level of customization. Choosing the fabric or choose a look for a room. That is what has eaten away at the market share of interior design. And the ASID (and other organizations) have not fought back.

It is in the long term best interest of my company to acknowledge and plan for this transition.

This blows my mind.

Bongs and Water

Are bigger bongs better because of the higher volume of water. Perhaps the more water the cleaner the smoke. Worth considering further.

A Whole New Game

It would be an interesting game if you could do the following:
Set up timing computer to:
Establish length of game
Establish number of "round" (or equivalent) during that time period
the timing of the rounds would be random. and the duration of each round (given a LOT of time) would be such that people would relax again between rounds. Thus it would test reaction-to-readiness as another factor of skill. It could be applied to anything from board games to team sports.

It might be difficult to keep the audience engaged though. But it's worth further consideration.

Interior Design

In its highest form Interior Design at its best is installation art in which people live.

America on Sale

"Anheuser-Busch Takes InBev Offer." Urgh. Difficult to even type that. I sat down with a highly successful money/headge-fund manager today. His perspective was that the US economy has a fundamental problem--the savings rate (-20%...so people spend 120% of what they earn).

And the savings rate comes from the attitude towards consumption in the US. Consumerism is the most popular past-time in America. And if nobody is saving eventually things will end up hitting a wall. The current global macro-environment is accelerating the pace of the American economy hitting a wall. In his words, "It's invigorating. It's the end of an empire."

I suppose to be a fantastic macro investor (where you bet on countries and economies) you have to be a "world investor." Some people have to know the health care market works, but a true macro-investor has to basically be able to have a mental understanding of how the world works. Odd...as understanding how the world works is basically the mission of many eastern religions.

Weed

I smoke too much weed. There are subtle effects like I stay up a bit later and get to work later. I'm not quite as intense...which is detrimental because i'm not intense that often. if i don't have weed around it's not a problem. i just can't have it around and not avail myself of the nightly toke.

Vintage Electronics

I bet old electronics will one day become "vintage electronics" and really old ones will gain in value just as old cars do. They old cars don't function as well as the new ones do, but they have artistic and or camp appeal.

Rock Stars

When was the last organically formed great rock band? The ones like U2 or Aerosmith. There aren't many great American bands anymore.

VP of Marketing

I had a discussion with the head of my brand about me taking over the marketing department. A prospect that makes sense from the perspective of competence and the need for change within the organization. But there are some HR/political issues since it is a family owned company and it would be an unnaturally rapid ascent through the ranks.

A tough prospect since I would like to begin business school within the next two years.

But the company desperately needs the help so I have to stay. And it will still be hard to leave in 2010.

We will know if the company is going to survive within the next 6-9 months. If we don't have sales that are trending upwards it's going to be extremely difficult for us to secure a new loan agreement since we have no tangible collateral for the bank to seize.

Too bad things move like molasses at work. And the company is losing money.

But that is a whole other story. Like I said. It's a family company. My family's.

Capital Markets and The Future

Our stock markets do a fairly good job of predicting outcomes a few months away. Perhaps it is through a form of capital markets that we will one day be able to predict a broader scope of the future. Imagine if you could buy shares of a person and have some oversight of their development.

Historic CEO

If I am ever a CEO I think it would be really interesting to hire a historian to record and analyze the history of the company through emails, contracts, interviews etc. Not only would it be a fascinating story to read back on, but it would do two other things: do more to establish the company as an institution (internally and externally) and you can learn a lot about from history, especially how not to make the same mistakes more than once.

News

That's actually what news channels do. CNN.com is a perfect example. It keeps you interacting with the brand.

Domain Names and Brands

What if the brand for a website was the domain name, and there was always a highly published main event so it became like a TV channel. If I were a major entertainment company I would use each brand's website as a screening room.

Strategic Oil Reserve

We should not stop filling the strategic oil nor draw on it unless an absolute emergency.

America imports 25% of world oil consumption. It imports 60% of its oil. Therefore the impact of a spike in prices or a disruption of oil supply would be exaggerated with respect to many other countries in the world.

Iraq and the Homeless

Iraq was probably the morally correct thing to do. Helping a homeless person is probably the morally correct thing to do. If someone gives change to half the homeless people they see each day it doesn't mean they are a hypocrit. Maybe those could do something for them. Even then it still doesn't make them helping those people the wrong thing to do. What if we have actually hindered the Iraq war by not throwing the full power of the army behind it? But then again, at what point is something outside our country morally important enough for us to sacrifice young Americans. It's the in-group out-group effect. What if we considered the whole world one country? What if every part of the world was American soil? Then it would be okay to send in the national guard? If America has to be the police of the world then that's what we have to do. It's a thankless job. But we are such a well off country because of it so we can't complain.

We need to be honest and realistic about Iraq

We have see a sustained and continuing trend of decreasing violence for a significant period of time before we start reducing our troop levels. And at that point when we can start reducing troop levels we have to provide continued and long term financial support to ensure that the country gets through several decades of progress. Otherwise it'll go the way of Afghanistan where the drastically reduced support left a vacuum that was filled by anti-american religious extremists.

"Winning" will take a long time. And it has to be a gradual reduction of support as the Iraqi government gains its footing and establishes itself as a long term and sustainable entity.

Water Taste and Hydration

I wonder if taste of water has a positive correlation with how hydrated the popuation is. I wonder if Coke (Dassani) and Pepsi (Aquafina) did focus groups in developing the taste of their waters. The prospect of that is awesome on one level. Horrifying on another.

Typing and Arthritis

Will so much typing give our generation terrible arthritis?

Laptops and Electric Blankets

If electric blankets increase the risk of cancer, imagine what laptops do. Hands and lap both pressed against a functioning electric device.

Why I Think We Are Headed For A Depression

Our economy is in the crapper and getting worse.

There is a perfect storm of economic factors that has magnitude without precedence in history.

We are standing on top of the longest and greatest bull market ever; thus leaving a long way for the economy to fall.

One major factor--the price of oil--is likely to continue on its current trajectory indefinitely.

Much of the Western World, and especially the United States, is deploying massive amounts of resources and manpower to places across the globe. These organizations will likely be essential in taking care of domestic problems in the not so far future.

Humanity is acting with remarkable lethargy to slow down the effects of global warming. The world is heating up. And we are like mice in a microwave.

Over the next few years the confluence of factors like dramatically higher energy costs, significantly higher food prices, a reversal in the trend of declining prices for consumer goods, a continuation in a worldwide increase of natural disasters.

In the short term America is going to be crippled by the skyrocketing energy prices. The only thing that can offset this near inevitability is spectacular innovation. Unfortunately America has had slipping schools for decades

We're polishing china on the Titanic.